Experts once expected Africa to suffer catastrophically from Covid-19. Yet infections have been falling across the continent from comparatively muted levels since July 2021. One possible explanation is that government data is wildly inaccurate, portraying a misleading picture of on-the-ground challenges. Limited vaccine coverage, after all, cannot align with low infection rates, at least in conventional wisdom.
I think there’s a different cultural approach in Africa, where these countries have approached Covid with a sense of humility because they’ve experienced things like Ebola, polio, and malaria.
Devi Sridhar, Professor of Global Public Health, University of Edinburgh
The World Health Organization now reports that Africa is one of the least affected regions globally. When comparing the experience in the US and Europe, scientists are truly puzzled. In searching for answers, there may be indirect social reasons for these low infection rates:
Youthful Demographics. Africa is a continent with a vibrant population. At 20 years, the average age is much lower than elsewhere. According to the United Nations, the average age in the United States is 39 years, while the number in Europe is 43 years.
Smaller Urban Populations. In the United States, about 83% of the population lives in cities. The number for outsized Nigeria is 52%, pulling up the regional average. The figures for Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, for instance, hover around 30%, based on data from the World Bank.
While these issues could be interpreted as coincidental, there is emerging scientific evidence that those who have been exposed to malaria are better able to withstand the impact of Covid-19. Africa, of course, has the highest malaria rates in the world, more than six times Southeast Asia, the next highest region. Context for this argument can be found in the academic paper: Fighting Covid-19 at the Expense of Malaria in Africa. The work was presented in November 2021 at the annual conference of The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Africa has not gone unscathed. South Africa has been the most seriously impacted nation in the region with some 89,000 coronavirus-related deaths. However tragic, those deaths represent only about 3% of the total worldwide. Tunisia is ranked second in Africa with near 25,000 deaths. The number for heavily-populated Nigeria startles many. The nation has seen perhaps 3,000 deaths since the outbreak began, according to the World Health Organization.
Experts acknowledge the omnipresent danger that people could become too complacent, paving the way for a major coronavirus wave. Public health officials appear vigilant, though. In South Africa, the government aims to vaccinate two-thirds of the population by the end of this year. The goals in other nations are more modest, but accelerating. One reason for the seemingly slow roll-out is limited vaccine access earlier this year. ■
Our Vantage Point: Dire predictions of a coronavirus-related collapse in the African economy may never play out, bewildering experts. Cross-border investors could be surprised at the upside potential in the region because of an apparent negligible Covid-19 overhang.
Learn more at AP News
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Image show a market scene in Tanzania, a nation where officials have been reticent to validate Covid-related data. Credit: Nikada at iStock by Getty Images.
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